4:48 PM: I think I did this last year (is it bad that I'm too lazy to fact check my own blog?) so why not do it again? Come back later and check in whenever you want. Live updates as the show goes on, because it'll just be me and my laptop anyway.
7:45 PM: Ryan Seacrest just did his damnedest to spoil the opening of the show for everyone. Good work, Ryan.
7:46 PM: FYI: Oscar beverage of the night - E&J VSOP brandy. Oscar snack of the night - none.
7:53 PM: The fashion guy on E! is the worst dressed person there.
8:04 PM: Oh God, there is nothing better than Twitter when there's a national event like this. Simmons is debating who will get the last spot on the dead star montage, Lady Gaga is quoting Inglourious Basterds, and Roger Ebert is tweeting just about everything.
8:13 PM: Well that was some fun trivia. Last picture to win when there were 10 nominees: Casablanca.
8:15 PM: Sarah Jessica Parker looks like a monster.
8:25 PM: The ABC Red Carpet Team is like a team of robots programmed to conduct awkward interviews.
8:43 PM: An opening song just to introduce the hosts? A little odd. The back and forth between Martin and Baldwin in the opening bit probably would have worked better if, you know, there was just one host. Like normal. It did pick up a little steam as it went along, though. Kathryn Bigelow is 50+ and still hot. The Clooney staredowns were fantastic. Almost as good as the standoff between Gervais and Carrell a couple years back on the Emmys. Almost.
8:46 PM: So we're starting with the biggest lock of the night? Good plan.
8:51 PM: Waltz wins supporting actor. No surprise there. It's great to start the night 1 for 1, but knowing that it was probably the easiest pick of the night takes away from it a bit. Waltz's other acceptance speeches were much more deep and profound, but I guess after you've won so many awards leading up to this there isn't much else to say other than "thank you."
8:59 PM: Intro to the animated movies nominees: fantastic.
9:00 PM: Also, 2 for 2 now. Is it way too early to get excited for a run at 21? Definitely. Those were two easy categories to pick.
9:04 PM: The Weary Kind wins Best Song. TH goes up to 3 for 3. That was definitely a luck category, so that's the first big prediction for a big prediction night.
9:10 PM: Craig just told me he doesn't like Caddyshack. Our friendship is now on the ropes.
9:16 PM: The Hurt Locker wins Original Screenplay. This is a big sign that my Inglourious Basterds pick could be in trouble. It's also my first loss of the night. 3 for 4. Good news for The Hurt Locker though if this is really a two-movie showdown.
9:22 PM: John Hughes tribute was well down. The man was a genius. Does this mean he won't be in the "In Memoriam" part now though? Oh God, I don't need to see Jon Sheyer ever. Go away.
9:28 PM: Okay, we got some lucky pick categories coming here. These are important after losing in Original Screenplay if I have any chance at a big night (I don't).
9:32PM: Oh shit! Logorama pulls it out! 4 for 5. It was the only animated short film I saw, and that was the only reason I picked it, so yeah, that was lucky. I figured it had no chance. Am I happy that it was apparently made by some French people? Not at all. I want my pick back!
9:37 PM: But I lose Documentary, Short. 4 for 6. I need to go perfect the rest of the way to set a new personal record. Whoa. Awkward acceptance speech right now. If this person suppose to be there? Whoa, rapid fire awards. THE NEW TENANTS WINS SHORT FILM. The dream is still alive! 5 for 7. 2 for 3 in some luck categories there. This is where I have to start blaming myself for foolishly hoping for some Inglourious Basterds upsets.
9:41 PM: Ben Stiller's Avatar bit was funny. We apparently need less Baldwin and Martin. Things are funny when they're not involved. No so much when they are. Is it too late to get Jon Stewart? Oh, and Start Trek wins for Makeup. Did I pick them? Yes, I did. 6 for 8. Is this the beginning of a crazy run to a record? Probably not. Just a momentary sense of empty hope.
9:47 PM: We're about half-way through the show so far (according to my television. No way it will really end at 11:30). Pretty standard/bland so far.
9:51 PM: Wow, Precious wins Adapted Screenplay. Personally, I thought Up in the Air was a lock. Also, that was a loss, so 6 for 9. At best I can only tie my record of 21. This guy is giving an emotional speech though. You always gotta feel good for someone who is genuinely surprised to win and happy about it.
9:52 PM: Martin, quickly realizing that may be the speech of the night, takes credit. Finally some good hosting.
9:55 PM: With a screenplay win a a possible supporting actress win along the way, it is time to start considering Precious a serious contender tonight. Like I said yesterday, the awards are like an equation that add up to the final answer. Good start for Precious.
10:00 PM: That's 2 of the 10 "bigger" awards that Precious has already won with Mo'Nique's win. You gotta start looking at Precious as a real contender now. If they take Editing or Cinematography, look out. Oh, I'm 7 of 10 now. So I need to go 14 for 14 to finish things out here to tie my record.
10:06 PM: Art Direction = Avatar. It's about time Avatar got on the board with a win. It only took more than an hour and a half. Also, 8 of 11 bitches. Much better than how I predicted my predictions.
10:08 PM: First the "dame" mispronunciation joke earlier, now the "horse" mispronunciation joke now. Come on!
10:12PM: Costume Design goes to The Young Victoria, a movie I have never heard of until yesterday. And immediately, the costume designer presents herself as a douchebag bitch: "I already have two of these." I'll take it though since I picked it. 9 of 12. halfway home I'm on pace for 18 of 24. I would be very pleased with that.
10:20 PM: Why do we need a tribute to horror? Also, "37 years since horror has had it's place at the Oscars with 2 awards for The Exorcist." Didn't Silence of the Lambs WIN in the early 90's?
10:24 PM: Morgan Freeman. He built the Batmobile, he can explain Sound Editing and Mixing.
10:26 PM: The Hurt Locker takes Sound Editing. My chance at 21 is finished, but this is a bigger win than you might expect for The Hurt Locker. A win over Avatar in a technical category like this could be very revealing.
10:27 PM: The Hurt Locker does it again in Sound Mixing. Avatar, you very well may be in a lot of trouble. If you'er keeping track at home, that is 3 awards for The Hurt Locker, 2 for Precious, 1 each for Avatar and Inglourious Basterds.
10:31 PM: So the sound awards did me in on my run for my personal record of 21. Like I said yesterday, it's a number I never expect to reach again. That year was just a perfect storm for me (and it would have been 22 if I hadn't decided that Johnny Depp's Jack Sparrow would beat out Sean Penn in Mystic River). Oh well. So long as I can hit some awards the rest of the way I'll still have a strong total. I'll take it.
10:37 PM: Avatar wins cinematography, which confuses me. How much camera work is there in a movie that is practically entirely animated? Also, this was big for Avatar. It's back in the hunt. I'd say we've still got a two-horse race (Hurt Locker, Avatar) but instead of Inglourious Basterds acting as the possible spoiler, it might be Precious.
10:49 PM: What the fuck is the significance of these dancers? Just play us the scores and be done with it. The dancing clearly has nothing to do with the individual movies.
10:57 PM: I just hit Visual effects for Avatar and Score for Up. That brings Avatar's total to 3, even with The Hurt Locker. Of course, Up now has 2. Not a real contender for the big prize, but I guess we've never seen this voting system before so who knows? Also, I'm att 11 correct picks. Only 2 more to match my prediction for my predictions.
11:00 PM: Inglourious Basterds needs to win Editing. If it doesn't I think it's out of the running. Oh God, I'm nervous.
11:05 PM: The Cove makes me 12 of 18. Not bad.
11:08 PM: The Hurt Locker takes Editing. I think they might have it in the bag now. Editing, screenplay, and both sound awards. The equation equals The Hurt Locker right now.
11:22 PM: Missing something like Foreign Language Film isn't much of a hit when you're out of the running for anything significant. Like 21 of 24.
11:55 PM: Kathryn Bigelow wins Director. The Hurt Locker has this in the books.
12:00 PM: 6 wins for The Hurt Locker, Best Picture capping it off. Congrats to them, they were the favorite and I'm glad they won instead of Avatar. Now it;s time to go to sleep.